Post-Elections Nationwide Poll on Greece -- September 25, 2015
Survey and Analysis of Results
Analysis by Dimitris Rapidis and Mario Schmidt
The first post-elections poll after snap elections of September 20 in Greece depict a rather clear image on how Greeks perceived the landslide of Syriza and the expectations they have from the new Greek cabinet.
Interesting enough, almost 1/2 were expecting the big win of the party, a fact that goes against what most polls (i.e. except for ours in Bridging Europe) have shown before elections, giving a neck-to-neck race for the first place. Nonetheless, 46% assess the formation of the new cabinet very positively or positively, while also a considerable part (38%) perceive it very negatively or negatively. People have assumed a slightly critical stance over the government beforehand, a fact that mid-term, depending on the efficiency and performance of the government, can provide a clearer image. This is an interesting observation that we will keep tracking in our next polls.
Strategic vote and personal credit to Alexis Tsipras
An overwhelming 61% declared they voted "strategically" on September 20, a fact that the new government should take into consideration. This does not mean that Syriza January voters have changed stance, but now, in this round, they did also support Syriza counting on additional factors other than ideology or hope. Added to the previous questions, this is the second observation we should keep and see how it will evolve should Syriza-ANEL government fail to address some of the major problems of the country.
What is clear though, is the credit citizens gave to Alexis Tsipras, with 67% considering the landslide of Syriza as his personal achievement. In other words, the message that the PM has delivered during the campaign (i..e between choosing himself as a young and fresh guy not involved in corruption scandals of the past or favoring the old corrupted political establishment) was successful and finally convinced the people to trust him for a second time. This wide support over Tsipras is something the new government should build on, especially during times of political crisis. Nonetheless, if Tsipras' personal capital is not coupled with specific political and economic achievements, support over the government will start dwindling and absorbed.
Unemployment is top problem, but hopes remain alive
Unemployment remains the biggest problem for the economy and similarly the biggest task for the government, according to the Greek citizens. Economic projection shows that unemployment, as well as additional macroeconomic factors such as poverty, are expected to worsen further in the next months, directly affected by austerity policies. Surprisingly, the refugee crisis is not considered as top problem, a fact that leads into two major observations: First, that the government policy on this issue has been so far considered as effective, in spite of huge and unresolved issues. In this respect, and as our previous polls have shown, people consider the refugee crisis more as a European problem rather than solely a Greek problem.
Second, the 7% that consider refugee crisis as a top issue are not only steaming from Golden Dawn voters, but broadly from voters having supported almost all parties. Therefore, we should not associate Golden Dawn voters with those believing the refugee crisis is top issue.
Last point to address, refers to the hopes people still have from the new government towards coping with two of the major issues of the political debate: corruption and the protection of vulnerable segments of the society. In both cases, people believe the new cabinet will keep its promises and address these issues. Still, concerns on the opposite are not be underestimated, as 32% and 31% respectively do not believe the government will address them efficiently or, to put it politely, have second thoughts.
September 25, 2015