Nationwide Poll towards snap elections in Greece -- September 4, 2015
Survey and Analysis of Results
Analysis by Dimitris Rapidis and Mario Schmidt
A big 73% of the respondents are not satisfied with the proposals of the political parties, while assessing the quality of the political debate so far very negatively (i.e. 78%). These outstanding rates are directly reflected on the performance of the parties in the third chart, as one week later undecided voters' rate still remains exceptionally high.
At the same time, a 38% believe that a second round of elections might occur, meaning that either the first party will not reach absolute majority or that coalition government will not succeed forming a steady government. Meanwhile, 53% would prefer the new government to be composed by non-party professionals, meaning from people outside parties or at least not directly involved in party politics. Both features and preferences give clear signs for the next government to diversify its personnel and bring in more people from the market, self-employed, academia, the public and private sector.
63% want to see young people getting involved in politics. This demand remains unfulfilled, with few examples to go against the rule, but certainly not as strategic priority for most of the parties. In addition to that, opinions are split on whether the televised debate could define the final turnout, a fact that adds to the uncertainly of a big part of the electorate over the political programs and the unconvincing arguments of the political leaders.
With regards to leaders' popularity, we cannot see any important shift. Syriza leader Tsipras and To Potami leader Theodorakis remain popular, while the rest have bigger fluctuations in their appeal. Most unpopular leaders remain, as during last week's poll, Golden Dawn Michaloliakos and Independent Greeks leader Kammenos.
We cannot see big changes comparing to the previous week, except for New Democracy getting higher (i.e. 1,5% up) and therefore narrowing the gap with Syriza. The following three parties remain steady for the moment, while former coalition government party Independent Greeks weakens even more, lowering possibilities for passing the threshold of 3% to enter the Parliament. Popular Unity increase its rate by 0,1% (i.e. similar to Syriza), whereas undecided voters rate remains very high.
Undecided Voters: A tricky story (Part 2)
Again, special focus should be put on undecided voters. Last week they were almost 20%; this week we saw a decline, reaching 17,4%, but not to a point that we can make safe predictions. The political landscape is blurry, and most of undecided voters are stuck in this position, without choosing a party, mainly because they lack alternatives choices. Ideological lines have been crossed back and forth many times, and for the majority there is a problem of trust. In this respect, no party seems capably of sheltering these growing grievances.
The current conditions and circumstances are tricky for any opinion survey.
September 4, 2015