Nationwide Poll towards snap elections in Greece -- September 18, 2015
Survey and Analysis of Results
Analysis by Dimitris Rapidis and Mario Schmidt
Couple of days before snap elections in Greece, the struggle for the winner and the number of the parties that will enter the Parliament keeps on. This time we will not conclude our survey with voting intention, but we provide vote estimate based on our tracking polls, the corresponding data and the previous voting preference of undecided voters. In addition to that, we will not provide any exit poll just after the closure of the voting process at 7pm on Sunday, relying on that study as our final survey and contribution for these elections.
Greeks clear on blame game over Greek Crisis and bailout deal
An outstanding 57% of the respondents believe that New Democracy and PASOK, ruling the country between 1974 and 2015 (40 years), are responsible for the current situation in Greece. Separately, New Democracy is considered responsible by 16%, PASOK by 18%, and Syriza, having ruled the country for seven (7) months, shares the smallest slice of the blame game, gathering 5%.
Astonishingly enough, 64% believes that the third MoU will not be implemented, showing a big distrust over the capacity of all political parties pledged to fully implement it. More than that, 79% believes that the MoU will not improve economic and social conditions in Greece, leaving only 15% that believes the opposite. Both figures are showing that Greek citizens have acquired enough experience during the previous years on what implementation means or whether this implementation, and the requirements that are attached with, affect economic performance and social stability. Notwithstanding, answers to both questions send a clear message to the next government and, broadly, to the entire Greek political establishment and Eurozone.
Stability seems distant enough
The final question deals with the political stability in the country as projected after elections on September 20. 57% believes Greece will not have stability, a figure that reflects uncertainly for the next day in the country. The major element that affects perception of stability is, mainly, the number of parties that might need to form a government, internal fractions in the government, and the previous experience with coalition governments in Greece, from 2010 onwards. No matter what, this is a bad start for the next government that needs also to prove that it can essentially work in a truly demanding framework while at the same time try to keep public feelings steady away from social turmoil that has dominated the country and the political agenda during the last three years.
Given the current results and the tracking polls, Syriza secures a win. Many parties will struggle for the third place, whereas we cannot exclude an outsider claiming its place in the next Parliament (i.e. ANEL; Union of Centrists). Again, as we have repeatedly pointed out during the past weeks, many things can change. From our analysis, only one thing is certain: 6/10 undecided voters will finally decide in front of the ballot box.
As of the other parties, New democracy has reached its maximum integration rate, similarly to PASOK and Golden Dawn. The River party (To Potami), Popular Unity, and the Communist Party seem steady, whereas minor parties like leftist ANTARSYA or EPAM might surprise us with their unexpected performance.
September 18, 2015