Nationwide Poll towards snap elections in Greece -- August 2015
Survey and Analysis of Results
Analysis by Dimitris Rapidis and Mario Schmidt
The decision of PM Tsipras to call for early elections in Greece has been received with mixed feelings. Only 43% of the respondents endorse his decision, while another 39% are against, with 18% to be somewhere in the middle. Clearly enough, these elections, while being rumored for long, were not finally as anticipated as the government and the Prime Minister himself would expect.
Almost 2/3 of the respondents believe that Greece will have a coalition government after September 20, a fact that all parties have to take into consideration during their campaigns. This trend is also reflected on voting intention, as no party gains absolute majority. Therefore, the formation of a coalition government is the most probably scenario for the moment, but the quagmire will be how the first party is going to successfully use the mandate and cooperate with other parties in order to avoid a second round of elections a month later.
The three following questions embark on the economic policy, and especially on the consequences of austerity policies. An outstanding 78% feel that spending power has been weakened, shaping a clear image on the social anxiety and pressure that has, in its turn, a direct effect on the consumption rate in domestic market.
Furthermore, Grexit still remains an option for 34% of the respondents. From our tracking on previous polls (i.e. since April 2015) supporters of national currency cannot be discerned based on their party preference, but can be better addressed as a big group that goes beyond traditional political lines. Fact is that after this poll, we can be certain that an argumented debate over the return to national currency will soon open, regardless of the performance of pro-drachma Popular Unity party.
Questions five and six emphasize on quantitative and qualitative issues of domestic economy and party politics. Unemployment and taxation are considered by 87% as the major problems for the Greek economy, reflecting a mounting discontent, while immigration, triggered by the incessant waves of refugees, is significantly starting to concern the electorate for the first time since 2012 elections and the rise of Golden Dawn party. As of the major problems of the political establishment, respondents feel disappointed by the U-turn of political leaders (i.e. now with reference to Tsipras), the corruption and the lack of vision by the political personnel overall.
Political Leaders' Popularity
Alexis Tsipras remains the most popular political leader, even though his popularity has been weakened since last month by 9% (see here). Worse are the feelings for front opposition leader Meimarakis that from 43% of positive views last month, dropped down to 29%. The rest remain more or less the same, except for newborn Popular Unity leader Panayiotis Lafazanis that appears for the first time in this section. He is not that popular for the moment, with negative views superseding positive ones, and counting for 64%.
SYRIZA has the lead, though with a highly decreasing pace, mainly due to the partition of the party and the creation of Popular Unity - i.e. that gathers 6.1%. New Democracy remains standstill, with Golden Dawn, To Potami, the Communist Party to retain forces. PASOK and Independent Greeks shrink further, losing the necessary 3% threshold to enter the Parliament.
Undecided Voters: A tricky story
Special focus has to be put on undecided voters. Almost 20% of the respondents are not certain which party are going to support. This huge percentage is going to lower in the next couple of weeks, but not to a point that we can make safe predictions for the following three issues: a. the turnout for the first party; b. the number of parties that will enter the Parliament; c. the coalition governments that can be formed.
August 28, 2015