Referendum of the Greek government: Do you accept the bailout program proposed by the institutions?
Survey and Analysis of Results
Type: Online Survey dispatched via email
Period: July 2-3, 2015
Sample: 2140 citizens
Our survey suggested that 66% of citizens between 18-55 years old favor option "No" in the referendum that the Greek coalition government SYRIZA-ANEL launched for the 5th of July 2015 on the acceptance or decline of the bailout program proposed by the institutions (i.e. ECB, European Commission, Eurozone, IMF).
More precisely, citizens between 18-35 years old, endorsed "No" in 81%, while giving "Yes" 19%. Among older population, between 36-55 years old, option "No" receives lower support, 59%, though remaining high above simple majority, while option "Yes" is comparatively much higher than among the younger population, surpassing the first sample by 32%, reaching 41%.
In the aggregate age scale, option "No" comes down to 66%, though remaining very high comparing to 34% that option "Yes" receives. It is in this outcome that we need to focus our attention a couple of days before the referendum, as it is clear that option "No" prevails. Nonetheless,, we cannot be certain on any major shift for both outcomes, especially for a lowering of option "No", as so far there has been a big discussion on how deep and effective "Yes" propaganda is, especially in the social media, but also via major Greek and foreign media networks that might, at the end of the day, risk to lose their credibility.
Option "No" is supported by more than 4/5 Greeks between 18-35 years old. This age scale is the most affected in terms of unemployment, while being highly educated. A great part of them, almost 63% has obtained at least one Master degree, while 67% has not worked more than two years in a row, being unable to sustain the basic living standards. Another 52% decided to go back to the family household, unable to pay the rent or any other obligation independently. Therefore this age scale is the most vibrant, yet disappointed and deeply affected by the economic crisis.
On the other side, option "Yes" remains high enough for the population between 36-55 years old. 58% of this segment has its job, regardless of satisfaction rate on monthly income or job prospects, and fears that voting "No" will further weaken their already unsteady and vulnerable working conditions. Meanwhile, there is also a 59% supporting "No", an albeit solid support, that considers -in 72%- that it can no more withstand such living conditions, while being weak in supporting their kids or young adults that decide to get back home. Within this age scale, there is also a 35% that received early retirement, with its pension subject to 40% cuts since 2010, that declares similarly unable to survive in dignity.
The aggregate outcome of the poll remains pretty high, at 66%, giving a clear verdict to the government to proceed accordingly and keep negotiating with the institutions and Eurozone partners. Overall, the final outcome of "No" goes lower, and the respective of "Yes" goes higher, as Greece has an aging population that affects more the final result.
July 3, 2015